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Will China Become Next Super Power? Show more Show less

There are many factors that contribute the the abilities of a country-technology, people, the power of the government, exports, imports, and so on. America is just one of the countries battling for dominance, and right by their side is China. The question is, who will emerge victorious? Will China become the next superpower?

Yes, China will become the next superpower Show more Show less

China's exponential growth will surpass the stagnating superpowers of the 20th century, establishing itself as a successor to the US's supremacy.
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China will disrupt democracy

With stagnation and division occurring in many Western democracies, China can demonstrate the effectiveness of its model of governance. With a single party and authoritarian structure, they can show how quickly infrastructure and reform can occur, enticing weary populations to their model.
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Context

"Jeremy Clarkson, Richard Hammond, and James May are in China exploring the 84,000 miles of motorway, more than any other country in the world including a bridge that is 34 miles long. In Britain, let's face it, we're doomed." [1]

The Argument

The "China Model," which has been pushed by Chinese President Xi Xenpeng, represents how the country is positioning itself on the global stage. It sees the current liberal world order, in which the US is supreme, as merely an alternative to theirs.[2] And they may be correct. The democratic paradigm that has reigned supreme in the West for several centuries may be under threat. Many of the most powerful nations of the 20th century are now suffering from stagnation, infighting, and dwindling reputations. The US is the most prominent example of this. China is very close to positioning its model—one of single-party authoritarianism and communism—as the reason for its unparalleled growth. If the US continues its decline, the global perception of liberal democracy may diminish, and China could become the new paradigm for success.

Counter arguments

The paradigm of liberal democracy cannot be overcome. After the fall of the Soviet Union, it became clear that the West's model of governance was the only sustainable means of global success. This is why the US has remained the prominent global power for a century. China exists in an authoritarian nightmare; liberty, privacy, and opportunity are all fleeting. The US may be suffering from some issues with partisan division and policy stagnation, but it is far from the first time that it has happened. The US has historically fought through and remained at the top of the global stage. Lastly, China's growth is belied by its disregard for human rights and democracy. As the Hong Kong protests underline, democracy and liberty are too valuable to exchange for growth, no matter how great.[3]

Framing

Premises

[P1] The "China Model" will become a new alternative to western liberal democracy. [P2] US decline will create a void on the global stage which China can fill. [P3] The growth of China under its model will be enticing to potential allies and emerging nations.

Rejecting the premises

[Rejecting P1] China's system is too oppressive and undemocratic for it to remain sustainable. [Rejecting P2] The US has not seen a significant decline and is unlikely to lose its global dominance. [Rejecting P3] The foundational principles of human rights and democracy will always overshadow the growth of China.

Proponents

Further Reading

References

  1. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4-XDxCb92X4
  2. https://www.nbr.org/publication/a-china-model-beijings-promotion-of-alternative-global-norms-and-standards/
  3. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/22/world/asia/hong-kong-china-protest.html

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This page was last edited on Monday, 22 Jun 2020 at 01:21 UTC