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Will China's rise as a global superpower be peaceful? Show more Show less

It has become evident that in the next few years China will surpass the United States economically and is also making huge progress towards closing the gap in military and technological capability. With this in mind, will China's rise will remain peaceful? Or will violence erupt as China upsets the current world order?

Yes, China's rise will be peaceful Show more Show less

China has far to much to lose from conflict with the West, particularly direct military engagement with the USA.
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China’s economy is internationally interconnected

It would not be in China's interest to allow conflict that might jeopardise its industrial base or alienate its burgeoning middle class and rich elite.
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Context

The Argument

China remains the largest manufacturing base in the world and is integral to the functioning of the international supply chain. Its future prosperity is directly linked with this role. Therefore it would not be in China's interest to allow a conflict that might jeopardise its industrial base. Aside from manufacturing, China also has a burgeoning middle class who aspire to high living standards and a rich elite who enjoy the ability to invest their wealth abroad. The aspirations of both these influential groups within China are tied to the continuation of open markets between China and the rest of the world.

Counter arguments

China's rise has been built on unfair and at times illegal economic practices, including espionage and the regular theft of intellectual property. The US President Donald Trump has regularly cited China as a 'currency manipulator', deliberately devaluing its currency to game the international trade system.[1] These tensions have led to a trade war between China and the United States of America, as both parties have announced tariffs on each other’s goods. Some have speculated that this trade war is not simply the manifestation of a personal grudge by the US President, but a realisation among policy officials in America that there is room for only one economic super power in the world.

Framing

Premises

[P1] China has a positive impact on the world economically.

Rejecting the premises

[Rejecting P1] China's economic position is precarious.

Proponents

Further Reading

References

  1. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jan/13/trump-drop-labeling-china-currency-manipulator-report/

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This page was last edited on Friday, 17 Apr 2020 at 12:15 UTC